Evacuation / Bug Out Plan - Deciding Whether To Stay Or Go

Prepper, bugging out,
While updating my bug-out plan, I've 'formalised' how I would decide to evacuate. 

In this post, I lay out a simple decision-making tool and the supporting information required.
 
Previously, I've relied upon some vague notion of 'oh look, imminent danger' or 'yeah nah she's fine'. Recent events have motivated me to be more considered. In part, this to help me cater for family now living in the same city.

I've devised a simple list to make a better decision under pressure. It's untested, but better to have done some pre-work now than starting from scratch during an actual event.

I'm sharing this to help me organise my analysis, and to help others structure their own thinking if they want.

The 'Stay or Go' decision is often made 

  • Without little or no warning
  • While facing actual or imminent danger
  • Forgetting some of the variables, and 
  • With missing information.

Sometimes the decision is wonderfully simple, like when the the toxic smoke from the industrial fire is wafting this way. Other times it won't be so clear-cut.

The general concept is to assess the risk of staying versus the risk of going. There are no rules or guidance that tell me when to stay or go - that depends upon what's most important in the situation.  Based upon life-experience, what's truly important to me will only be revealed once I'm in that situation.  

The questions are a set of general considerations, and is not meant to be exhaustive. 

If you have any suggested improvements etc, please let me know.

Part 1 - Deciding Whether To Stay or Go

My default option is to stay home unless I must evacuate i.e. is staying worse than evacuating? 

The following questions are intended to help me assess that relative risk. This will be based upon the information in Part 2 below, where it's available.  

  1. How dangerous is it to stay at home?
    • What is the danger or risk? 
    • When do I expect the danger to arrive?
    • When must I decide to stay or go by?
  2. If it is safe enough, how practical is it to remain at home?
    • What services are available or not - How long can I remain at home?
    • Are services likely to be restored in time for my needs?
    • When do I expect other assistance to arrive?
    • Does somebody else need me here?
  3. Is there a better place to relocate to?
    • How widespread is the disaster? – local / regional/ multiple regions?
    • Where can I get to that is better than here? – local/ regional / national
  4. How safe is it to travel? 
    • Potential or known risks for travel e.g. ongoing rain/flooding
  5. How practical is it to travel?
    • What are the known or likely obstacles? E.g. damaged bridges preventing exit
    • Which method of travel?
    • If bike or walk, am I fit enough? What about the other people?
    • If evacuating turns out to be the wrong decision, how feasible is it to come back?
  6. Am I better off evacuating or staying home?
    • If evacuating then get started.
    • If staying home for now then get ready to move just in case.
    • If staying home then no further action required.
  7. If possible, advise family, friends and work of my decision/status.

Part 2 - Required Information

In no particular order, this is the ideal set of information needed.

A. Working Communications

  • Radio Stations / Cellphones Phones (text / data / voice ) / Landline (Voice/Internet)/ Other 

B. Status of Other People

  • Safety of family, friends, work: safety, location, needs?
  • Health : injuries / existing medical conditions and support needed
  • Fitness: Can they travel: at all / by foot or bike / how far

C. Event Details

  • What is/was the event? E.g earthquake
  • How wide an area is impacted? E.g local/regional/multiple regions to the south
  • Are subsequent events expected e.g. aftershocks – is it safe enough to travel?

D. What Are The Impacts

  • What are the known or likely disruptions to essential services and income? How long will these last for?
  • Can I keep living at home for the duration?
  • What are the impacts for my income?
E. What Assistance Is Available, by When
  • Neighbors / Friends / Family
  • Emergency services / Civil Defence
F. Potential Travel and Destination
  • Where is ‘normal’ life still happening? Or even just safer than here.
  • Any known or likely obstacles to travel? E.g. damaged roads, broken bridges
  • What is the weather risk for travel e.g. heatstroke; volcanic ash effects on vehicles and people
  • Any official guidance on evacuation and recommended route.

Location: Auckland, New Zealand

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