Auckland Homestead Spring Weather Forecast - Sept / Oct / November '23

Early spring is my traditional time of optimism and hope on the homestead as the wet days start winding down. This is the time of preparing, planting and prioritising those ideas which came to mind over winter. Major goals for me are to build up both my productive land and prepping for any potential drought or sprinkler ban.

An assessment of the expected spring weather helps with that forward-planning. Mine is based upon the seasonal outlook produced by NIWA (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research). My assessment is divided into 'NIWA Forecast' and 'Implications' sections, to distinguish between mine and NIWAs work. I share it here just for the 'fun' of it, with no particular intention. 

NIWA Forecast for The Auckland Region

This section contains both the actual commentary and the confidence estimates. These are sourced from the regional section of the outlook concerned. 

Note that NIWA's commentary refers to various averages. These are long term averages for the region and season concerned, which are:
  • Temperature: 14.2 degrees
  • Rainfall totals: 290 mm

NIWA Commentary

"The following outcomes are the most likely for this region:
  • Temperatures are most likely to be near average (50% chance). A prevailing area of high pressure near the region may cause clear, cold nights and mornings and the potential for some unseasonable frosts.
  • Rainfall totals are most likely to be below normal (45% chance). Although the first half of September will be unsettled at times, an increased frequency of high pressure systems near the region during spring will likely lead to longer spells of drier than normal conditions.
  • Seasonal wind speeds may be stronger than normal.
  • Soil moisture levels are most likely to be below normal (45% chance) while river flows are about equally likely to be below normal (45% chance) or near normal (40% chance)."
Note about El Niño: "Alert criteria continued to be met during August. The conditions needed to officially classify El Niño in a New Zealand context may be reached during September."

Forecast Confidence

  • Temperature:"... medium-high. More frequent southwesterly winds during spring will reduce the chance for widespread and long-lasting above average seasonal temperatures."
  • Rainfall: "...medium. The combination of more frequent high pressure systems in the New Zealand region and a building El Niño event increases the odds for longer dry spells in many regions. Brief periods of climatic variability, such as in early-to-mid September, may provide temporary breaks from drier than normal conditions in some regions, but may only bring patchy rainfall"

Implications  

Overall  
  • Expect hotter than usual, however the forecasted south-westerlies should help keep these down. There is potential for increased humidity conditions, creating blight - ensure sufficient airflow for crops.
  • Potential exists for early frosts. Protect frost-sensitive crops from now onwards. 
  • Expect less rain than usual for the period. May need to restart watering crops sooner than expected. May need to water crops more than in previous years.  
  • There is potential for El Nino to make these dry spells extended - may just be 'drier' rather than 'drought'. 
  • At 'medium' for rainfall, the confidence estimate doesn't inspire me to spend money on improving the irrigation system just yet. It might turn out to be dry as per usual or even wetter than usual. Wait and see.

Sources:

1) NIWA Seasonal climate outlook 1 September 2023 -  https://niwa.co.nz/climate/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2023


Location: 5M6G+9F Auckland, New Zealand

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